by Fahed M. Al-Ajmi
This paper analyzes the effects of sociopolitical factors, as well as economic factors, on OPEC’s oil production behavior over the 1970 to 1988 period. This span is subdivided into two periods of 1970-1982 and 1983-1988 in order to determine whether there was a significant structural shift in OPEC’s production behavior after the organization assigned quotas to its members in 1983. A discussion of sociopolitical instability is presented followed by the model, data, and a reporting of the model’s results for OPEC’s 11 country members. The author concludes that sociopolitical factors did have a significant effect on OPEC’s output behavior and that sociopolitical pressures undermined OPEC’s production decisions. At an individual level, Saudi Arabia was found to be politically stable, but Iran and Iraq were politically unstable, translating into inflexibility in their production capacities. It was anticipated that sociopolitical instability would be significant for some individual OPEC members, especially Nigeria, Algeria, and Venezuela. The study suggests that both economic and sociopolitical factors must be considered in evaluating OPEC production levels. (This article by Fahed M. Al-Ajmi, “The Effect of Sociopolitical Events on OPEC's Market-Share Stability,” was published in The Journal of Energy and Development, spring 1990, vol. 15, no. 2).
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق