Riyadh Newspaper/Economy: Tuesday– 13 November 2018
Fahad Mohamed Bin Jumah
Tramp's hammer on Iran's oil exports since November 5 will further derail its revenue curve and cast a shadow over its economy, although eight countries (South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Greece, Japan, China, India and Italy) Days. However, these exempted countries will have difficulty in settling their payments through the domestic financial institutions or currency trading system after the International Financial Telecommunication System (Swift) approved the isolation of Iranian banks from international banks in compliance with the ban, which is also a clear challenge to EU efforts.
These exemptions are only an attempt to calm oil prices and gradually increase in the next six months, so as not to shock the world oil markets threaten the growth of the world economy. The first ban on August 7 stopped France and South Korea from importing Iranian oil and condensates in July. The current ban on Iran's oil exports reduces China's imports of Iranian oil by 45 percent of its current imports of 650,000 barrels per day To (360) thousand barrels per day, and India's imports of Iranian oil will soon fall from the current level (501) thousand barrels per day.
As a result of the ban, Iranian exports fell by about 1 million barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day and are expected to fall to 1.1 million barrels per day in November, according to Platts SP. The continuation of this embargo will cost the Iranian economy about $ 36 billion or 68 per cent of its oil revenues of $ 52 billion in 2017. It will limit the capabilities of the Iranian regime to fund proxy terrorists in the region.
Despite these exemptions, oil prices will continue to rise as the gap between global supply and demand and global stock levels decline in the coming months. The role of coordination between Saudi Arabia as the largest producer in OPEC and Russia as the largest producer outside OPEC in the framework of the equation of maximizing oil revenues at prices that do not disturb the supply of global markets and maintain their balance and support the continued growth of global demand for oil in the near and long term.
The strategic objective of the embargo is to limit Iranian interference in the region's affairs, support for terrorist militias and the production of nuclear and ballistic weapons that threaten world peace and security, but the two exemptions will vanish at the end of May. If not renewed, ) And increases as the duration of the ban increases.
